What goes up must come down, unless we’re talking about Canadian housing prices. At least that’s the conclusion we’re reached after reviewing new reports on our overheated housing market, that predict rising prices well into 2022.
What happened: The price of a home in Canada rose 17.1% in Q4 of 2021, according to real estate brokerage Royal LePage’s latest House Price Survey, bringing the aggregate cost of a Canadian home to $779,000 heading into the new year.
And according to their Survey, there’s no end in sight for price hikes: Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper says he expects to see “home prices rising at double-digit levels again this year.”
Why it’s happening: A Scotiabank report published earlier this week found that “Canada’s population-adjusted housing stock is the lowest in the G7” — in other words, there’s not enough houses to go around. More demand than supply equals higher prices.
- Ontario’s shortage is the worst in the country, Scotiabank found. The province would need 650,000 more homes just to catch up to the rest of the country in terms of houses per person.
But wait: Wasn’t the pandemic supposed to help with this problem, as people left big cities for smaller, more affordable towns?
Not so much, it turns out. People have left big cities: Toronto’s population fell by 16,600 and Montreal’s by 46,700 in the first half of 2021. And for the first time on record, rural areas experienced faster population growth than urban centres. But while prices have soared in these growing small towns, they have also continued to rise in big cities.
- That may have something to do with investors snatching up more and more real estate. The Bank of Canada reported this week that 20% of home purchases are now made by investors — about the same share made by first-time buyers.
- With investors piling into the market, fewer people in cities doesn’t necessarily mean more supply on the market.
Big picture: The Bank of Canada has already warned of the potential for a fall in home prices after they raise interest rates (which could happen this month), but right now nobody is making money betting against the Canadian housing market.