So much for that v-shaped recovery — Canada
lost 62,000 jobs in December, the first decline since April, and the unemployment rose from 8.5% to 8.6%.
Key numbers:
- 636,000 fewer people are employed now than in February 2020.
- Part-time employment dropped by 100,000 jobs in December.
- 44,000 Canadians aged 25-54 left the workforce in December, most of them women.
Why is this happening: Public health rules have shut down or limited most close-contact service businesses and school shutdowns are forcing more people to stay at home to look after kids, causing them to leave the labour force.
- The proof is in the data: employment in accommodation and food services fell by 56,700 jobs and culture and recreation jobs fell by 18,800.
Not just us: Our southern neighbours have also hit a rough patch (almost an evergreen statement at this poiint),
losing 140,000 jobs in December. The decline was unexpected — analysts had predicted job gains.
What's next: Eventually vaccines will allow businesses to re-open in some format and hiring should pick up, but the question now is when that deliverance will arrive:
- So far the roll-out of vaccines has been slow. It's taken almost a month to provide less than 1% of the population with a single dose.
- Meanwhile provinces are tightening COVID restrictions — Quebec introduced a curfew this weekend, and Ontario may follow suit.
Bottom line: Even with vaccines, COVID isn't going away in the next few months. Keeping the economy on a recovery path will likely require more policy measures to help weather public health restrictions needed until that time comes.
