Tensions are escalating in the Red Sea

Rebel attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea have been mucking up global trade for weeks, and Western powers have officially had enough.

What happened: U.S. and British jets and warships shot down one of the largest attacks of drones and missiles yet from Iran-backed Yemeni Houthi rebels on a ship passing through the Red Sea. 

Catch-up: The Houthis, a rebel group in Yemen, have attacked around two dozen cargo ships since mid-November. They were initially targeting Israeli or Israel-bound cargo ships in retaliation to the war against Hamas, an ally, but are now seemingly attacking any vessel.

  • A coalition of more than 12 countries, including Canada, the U.S., and the U.K., warned the Houthis to stop attacks or face repercussions, a threat that has not been heeded. 

Why it matters: The cost of shipping a standard 40-foot container has nearly doubled as a result, due to higher insurance premiums and ships taking longer routes to avoid the region. These costs will be passed down to consumers as producers try to offset shipping expenses.

  • The world’s 10 biggest cargo ship operators have already re-routed over US$200 billion worth of cargo around the Horn of Africa since early December.

What’s next: Though the U.S. and U.K. have beefed up their presence in the Red Sea, neither have launched a direct attack against the Houthi military targets on land — wary of the geopolitical ramifications. However, this most recent Houthi strike could be the last straw.

Bottom line: Continued attacks will be a migraine for the world economy. According to one analysis, long-term shipping disruptions could boost global inflation by up to 0.5%.—QH