File this story under “diseases you thought you could stop worrying about”: Experts are worried that a recent surge in measles cases could soon get worse as kids return from the March break holidays.
Driving the news: New modelling projections from researchers at Simon Fraser University show that Canada has a high chance of experiencing a significant measles outbreak, potentially infecting thousands.
- Per CBC, 31 measles cases have been reported in Canada so far this year, already the largest annual tally in five years and more than double the number of cases in 2023.
- Experts warn that with vaccination rates against measles in some regions as low as 30%, the disease could spread rapidly in both small and large communities across the country.
Why it’s happening: Canada’s measles vaccination rate has been steadily falling, hitting a low point in 2021 when 79% — or roughly two in 10 kids — didn’t have both required doses by their seventh birthday.
- Québec — which is home to an estimated 100,000 kids without measles vaccinations — has been an early hotspot, with 21 cases already this year.
Why it matters: Measles is extremely contagious, especially among kids, and can cause serious health problems, including pneumonia, brain inflammation, blindness and, in severe cases, death.
- Measles outbreaks, particularly in smaller communities, can also put pressure on already strained healthcare systems and have a domino effect on other patients' care.
Zoom out: Europe already saw a 45-fold increase in measles cases from 2022-2023, and experts say the U.S. — which only has 27 more cases than Canada this year in spite of having a population nearly nine times the size — could soon see a similar surge.
What’s next: Canada officially “eliminated” measles — meaning endemic transmission no longer took place — in 1998. Provinces are rushing to create vaccine pop-ups in hospitals and schools, but if outbreaks aren’t contained, Canada could soon lose its measles-free status.—LA